The unicorn on the British royal coat-of-arms in NUIG -until the mid-Thirties, it stood in front of Galway Courthouse .
It’s probably not a surprise that British politicians have devoted so much energy chasing Brexit unicorns, rather than accept the less palatable reality of what leaving the European Union means. The latest unicorn is the effort to persuade the EU to amend Withdrawal Agreement to remove the backstop clause (their current Plan B¹).
A number of UK politicians, including the DUP, have indicated that they will support the current withdrawal agreement if the backstop is removed, or can be abandoned later. A Polish minister proposed a time-limited backstop. I’ve even heard some Irish commentators suggest that the Irish government should be ‘flexible’ when it comes to the backstop. But why should they ? For Ireland, the outcome of a no-deal Brexit is not that much different from a withdrawal agreement with no (or limited) backstop.
With no-deal, the Irish government has to create and maintain a ‘hard’ border with Northern Ireland, to ensure that the EU’s newest external border is secured. For agriculture alone, Ireland would have to do this. While no-deal would be painful for Ireland, it would be even more painful for Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, and the rest of the EU would suffer somewhat too. So most people have an incentive to avoid no-deal. However, a deal without a backstop would also require Ireland to create and maintain a border, unless the UK remained completely aligned to EU standards for everything that moves between the two jurisdictions in Ireland (i.e. everything). Without a backstop, the UK wouldn’t be constrained to diverge from EU rules. However, in this scenario, Ireland still feels the same amount of pain, but the UK as a whole would suffer less, as would the rest of the EU.
No Irish government wants to erect a border at all, especially on the centenary of the War of Independence. But the Irish government has little to lose by holding firm on the backstop. If only the UK had a plan C…
¹ In truth, there are a number of Plan Bs, all infused with the same gritty realism as the prospect of a herd of unicorns flying over a rainbow.